Command centre — model health, strong markets, live results
Updated 2026-10-12 21:04 UTC
Strong calls only (≥ threshold at prediction time). Bars show hit rate. Rows with < 5 samples are dimmed.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 263/279 | 94% | |
| Over 1.5 | 184/233 | 79% | |
| Under 3.5 | 124/188 | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75/122 | 61% | |
| BTTS Yes | 50/89 | 56% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38/85 | 45% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18/43 | 42% | |
| BTTS No | 37/100 | 37% | |
| Under 1.5 | 1/18 | 6% | |
| Under 0.5 | 0/1 | 0% |
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 15/18 | 83% |
| Unknown | 3/4 | 75% |
| Serie A | 35/59 | 59% |
| Primeira Liga | 29/54 | 54% |
| Premier League | 30/60 | 50% |
| Ligue 1 | 27/54 | 50% |
| Bundesliga | 21/45 | 47% |
| La Liga | 33/72 | 46% |
| Europa League | 8/18 | 44% |
| Serie B | 24/60 | 40% |
| Eredivisie | 19/52 | 37% |
| Championship | 32/95 | 34% |
| Match | Predicted | Score | 1X2 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Torino vs Udinese
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Torino 41%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-12 |
|
Atalanta BC vs Venezia
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Atalanta BC 55%
pred 1-0
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-10-12 |
|
Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Newcastle United 84%
pred 0-2
|
4-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-12 |
|
Arouca vs CF Estrela
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
CF Estrela 45%
pred 1-1
|
1-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-12 |
|
Modena vs Hellas Verona
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Modena 64%
pred 1-0
|
3-2 | Correct | 2026-10-12 |
|
Troyes vs Marseille
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Marseille 62%
pred 1-2
|
0-2 | Correct | 2026-10-12 |
|
Cagliari vs Juventus
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Juventus 48%
pred 0-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-12 |
|
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Valencia
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Valencia 48%
pred 1-2
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-10-12 |
|
Benfica vs Vitória SC
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Benfica 62%
pred 1-0
|
2-0 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Rio Ave FC vs Nacional
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Rio Ave FC 60%
pred 1-0
|
3-2 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Padova vs Carrarese
Over 0.5 Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Padova 49%
pred 0-0
|
0-2 | Wrong | 2026-10-11 |
|
US Catanzaro 1929 vs Mantova
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5
|
Mantova 72%
pred 0-2
|
1-3 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Rennes vs Auxerre
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Rennes 52%
pred 1-1
|
4-1 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Nice vs Strasbourg
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Nice 41%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
SC Freiburg 80%
pred 2-0
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
1. FC Köln 51%
pred 2-2
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
AC Milan 47%
pred 1-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-11 |
|
Lazio vs Monza
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5
|
Lazio 75%
pred 2-0
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Lecce vs Bologna
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Bologna 44%
pred 0-1
|
1-2 | Correct | 2026-10-11 |
|
Liverpool vs Manchester City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Liverpool 42%
pred 1-1
|
0-3 | Wrong | 2026-10-11 |
When the model said X% confidence, how often was it right? Positive delta = under-confident.
| Band | Record | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–45% | 24/48 | 50% | ~43% | +7.5pp |
| 45–50% | 17/46 | 37% | ~48% | -10.5pp |
| 50–55% | 15/33 | 45% | ~52% | -7.0pp |
| 55–60% | 15/33 | 45% | ~57% | -12.0pp |
| 60–65% | 17/29 | 59% | ~62% | -3.9pp |
| 65–70% | 15/25 | 60% | ~68% | -7.5pp |
| 70%+ | 30/55 | 55% | ~85% | -30.5pp |
Walk-forward on 1939 last-season matches.
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 980/1939 | 50.5% |
| Champions League | 112/189 | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | 162/305 | 53% |
| Serie A | 195/380 | 51% |
| La Liga | 185/380 | 49% |
| Premier League | 183/380 | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 143/305 | 47% |