Command centre — model health, strong markets, live results
Updated 2026-09-20 23:03 UTC
Strong calls only (≥ threshold at prediction time). Bars show hit rate. Rows with < 5 samples are dimmed.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 185/198 | 93% | |
| Over 1.5 | 129/167 | 77% | |
| Under 3.5 | 88/133 | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53/86 | 62% | |
| BTTS Yes | 33/59 | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 12/29 | 41% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25/61 | 41% | |
| BTTS No | 25/70 | 36% | |
| Under 1.5 | 1/16 | 6% | |
| Under 0.5 | 0/1 | 0% |
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 15/18 | 83% |
| Unknown | 3/4 | 75% |
| Serie A | 30/50 | 60% |
| Premier League | 26/50 | 52% |
| Primeira Liga | 23/46 | 50% |
| Bundesliga | 17/36 | 47% |
| Ligue 1 | 21/45 | 47% |
| La Liga | 29/64 | 45% |
| Europa League | 8/18 | 44% |
| Eredivisie | 17/44 | 39% |
| Serie B | 18/50 | 36% |
| Championship | 27/84 | 32% |
| Match | Predicted | Score | 1X2 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FC Porto vs Benfica
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
FC Porto 60%
pred 1-0
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Paris Saint Germain 60%
pred 1-2
|
1-2 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
AC Milan vs Lecce
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
AC Milan 60%
pred 1-0
|
3-0 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Real Sociedad 42%
pred 0-1
|
2-3 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Estoril vs Casa Pia
Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Draw 55%
pred 0-0
|
1-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Santa Clara vs Braga
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Santa Clara 54%
pred 1-0
|
0-0 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Vitória SC vs Moreirense FC
Over 0.5 Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Draw 41%
pred 0-0
|
1-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
CF Estrela vs Académico de Viseu
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
CF Estrela 60%
pred 2-1
|
0-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Modena vs Empoli
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Modena 66%
pred 1-0
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Mantova vs Pisa
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Mantova 71%
pred 2-0
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Nice vs Lille
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Nice 37%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
SC Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim
Over 0.5 Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
TSG Hoffenheim 73%
pred 0-1
|
3-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
FC Schalke 04 vs Elversberg
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Elversberg 50%
pred 1-2
|
0-0 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Juventus vs Atalanta BC
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Juventus 60%
pred 1-0
|
2-0 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Fulham vs Manchester United
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Manchester United 49%
pred 1-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Villarreal vs Levante
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Villarreal 40%
pred 1-1
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Deportivo La Coruña 46%
pred 1-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Real Madrid 39%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Go Ahead Eagles 59%
pred 2-4
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Hellas Verona vs Vicenza
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Hellas Verona 50%
pred 2-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
When the model said X% confidence, how often was it right? Positive delta = under-confident.
| Band | Record | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–45% | 16/34 | 47% | ~43% | +4.6pp |
| 45–50% | 13/30 | 43% | ~48% | -4.2pp |
| 50–55% | 11/27 | 41% | ~52% | -11.8pp |
| 55–60% | 13/25 | 52% | ~57% | -5.5pp |
| 60–65% | 11/20 | 55% | ~62% | -7.5pp |
| 65–70% | 9/16 | 56% | ~68% | -11.2pp |
| 70%+ | 21/42 | 50% | ~85% | -35.0pp |
Walk-forward on 1939 last-season matches.
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 980/1939 | 50.5% |
| Champions League | 112/189 | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | 162/305 | 53% |
| Serie A | 195/380 | 51% |
| La Liga | 185/380 | 49% |
| Premier League | 183/380 | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 143/305 | 47% |