Command centre — model health, strong markets, live results
Updated 2026-10-10 21:19 UTC
Strong calls only (≥ threshold at prediction time). Bars show hit rate. Rows with < 5 samples are dimmed.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 234/249 | 94% | |
| Over 1.5 | 165/210 | 79% | |
| Under 3.5 | 111/163 | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69/111 | 62% | |
| BTTS Yes | 44/79 | 56% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34/76 | 45% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17/40 | 42% | |
| BTTS No | 34/88 | 39% | |
| Under 1.5 | 1/16 | 6% | |
| Under 0.5 | 0/1 | 0% |
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 15/18 | 83% |
| Unknown | 3/4 | 75% |
| Serie A | 31/53 | 58% |
| Primeira Liga | 25/49 | 51% |
| Premier League | 28/56 | 50% |
| La Liga | 32/68 | 47% |
| Ligue 1 | 24/51 | 47% |
| Europa League | 8/18 | 44% |
| Bundesliga | 19/43 | 44% |
| Serie B | 22/57 | 39% |
| Eredivisie | 18/49 | 37% |
| Championship | 32/95 | 34% |
| Match | Predicted | Score | 1X2 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CS Maritimo vs FC Porto
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS No
|
FC Porto 83%
pred 0-3
|
1-2 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Arezzo vs Cremonese
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Cremonese 47%
pred 1-1
|
0-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Vicenza vs Pisa
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Pisa 47%
pred 1-2
|
0-3 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Lorient vs Paris FC
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Paris FC 56%
pred 0-1
|
1-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans FC
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Paris Saint Germain 72%
pred 3-1
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Brest vs Angers
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Brest 41%
pred 1-1
|
5-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
AS Monaco vs Toulouse
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
AS Monaco 68%
pred 1-0
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Lille vs Le Havre
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Lille 67%
pred 2-0
|
1-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Eintracht Frankfurt 41%
pred 2-2
|
6-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Napoli vs Frosinone
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Frosinone 46%
pred 0-1
|
3-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Inter Milan vs Parma
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5
|
Inter Milan 70%
pred 2-0
|
3-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5
|
Manchester United 64%
pred 2-0
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Real Madrid 56%
pred 2-1
|
1-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Barcelona vs Getafe
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Barcelona 78%
pred 2-0
|
3-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
BTTS No
|
Ajax 49%
pred 6-0
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente Enschede
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
FC Twente Enschede 73%
pred 1-3
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
AZ Alkmaar 40%
pred 2-2
|
2-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Virtus Entella 57%
pred 1-0
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Empoli vs Palermo
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Palermo 66%
pred 0-1
|
2-4 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Benevento vs Cesena FC
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Benevento 39%
pred 1-0
|
2-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
When the model said X% confidence, how often was it right? Positive delta = under-confident.
| Band | Record | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–45% | 20/43 | 47% | ~43% | +4.0pp |
| 45–50% | 17/40 | 42% | ~48% | -5.0pp |
| 50–55% | 12/29 | 41% | ~52% | -11.1pp |
| 55–60% | 15/32 | 47% | ~57% | -10.6pp |
| 60–65% | 12/24 | 50% | ~62% | -12.5pp |
| 65–70% | 14/23 | 61% | ~68% | -6.6pp |
| 70%+ | 25/49 | 51% | ~85% | -34.0pp |
Walk-forward on 1939 last-season matches.
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 980/1939 | 50.5% |
| Champions League | 112/189 | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | 162/305 | 53% |
| Serie A | 195/380 | 51% |
| La Liga | 185/380 | 49% |
| Premier League | 183/380 | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 143/305 | 47% |