Command centre — model health, strong markets, live results
Updated 2026-10-10 00:33 UTC
Strong calls only (≥ threshold at prediction time). Bars show hit rate. Rows with < 5 samples are dimmed.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 193/206 | 94% | |
| Over 1.5 | 134/172 | 78% | |
| Under 3.5 | 91/138 | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55/89 | 62% | |
| BTTS Yes | 35/62 | 56% | |
| Under 2.5 | 27/64 | 42% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13/31 | 42% | |
| BTTS No | 26/73 | 36% | |
| Under 1.5 | 1/16 | 6% | |
| Under 0.5 | 0/1 | 0% |
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 15/18 | 83% |
| Unknown | 3/4 | 75% |
| Serie A | 30/50 | 60% |
| Premier League | 26/50 | 52% |
| Primeira Liga | 24/48 | 50% |
| Bundesliga | 17/37 | 46% |
| Ligue 1 | 21/46 | 46% |
| La Liga | 29/65 | 45% |
| Europa League | 8/18 | 44% |
| Eredivisie | 18/45 | 40% |
| Serie B | 19/51 | 37% |
| Championship | 27/85 | 32% |
| Match | Predicted | Score | 1X2 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Braga vs Sporting Lisbon
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Sporting Lisbon 42%
pred 0-0
|
1-3 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Moreirense FC vs Gil Vicente
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Moreirense FC 35%
pred 0-0
|
0-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Avellino vs Sampdoria
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Avellino 63%
pred 1-0
|
4-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
West Ham United 52%
pred 1-0
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
RC Lens vs Lyon
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Lyon 60%
pred 1-2
|
2-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Borussia Dortmund 65%
pred 2-1
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Málaga vs Espanyol
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Espanyol 57%
pred 0-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
PSV Eindhoven 59%
pred 2-1
|
2-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
FC Porto vs Benfica
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
FC Porto 60%
pred 1-0
|
3-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Paris Saint Germain 60%
pred 1-2
|
1-2 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
AC Milan vs Lecce
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
AC Milan 60%
pred 1-0
|
3-0 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Real Sociedad 42%
pred 0-1
|
2-3 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Estoril vs Casa Pia
Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Draw 55%
pred 0-0
|
1-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Santa Clara vs Braga
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Santa Clara 54%
pred 1-0
|
0-0 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Vitória SC vs Moreirense FC
Over 0.5 Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Draw 41%
pred 0-0
|
1-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
CF Estrela vs Académico de Viseu
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
CF Estrela 60%
pred 2-1
|
0-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Modena vs Empoli
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Modena 66%
pred 1-0
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
Mantova vs Pisa
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Mantova 71%
pred 2-0
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
|
Nice vs Lille
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Nice 37%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-09-20 |
|
SC Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim
Over 0.5 Under 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
TSG Hoffenheim 73%
pred 0-1
|
3-1 | Wrong | 2026-09-20 |
When the model said X% confidence, how often was it right? Positive delta = under-confident.
| Band | Record | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–45% | 17/35 | 49% | ~43% | +6.1pp |
| 45–50% | 13/30 | 43% | ~48% | -4.2pp |
| 50–55% | 11/28 | 39% | ~52% | -13.2pp |
| 55–60% | 14/28 | 50% | ~57% | -7.5pp |
| 60–65% | 12/22 | 55% | ~62% | -8.0pp |
| 65–70% | 9/16 | 56% | ~68% | -11.2pp |
| 70%+ | 21/42 | 50% | ~85% | -35.0pp |
Walk-forward on 1939 last-season matches.
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 980/1939 | 50.5% |
| Champions League | 112/189 | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | 162/305 | 53% |
| Serie A | 195/380 | 51% |
| La Liga | 185/380 | 49% |
| Premier League | 183/380 | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 143/305 | 47% |