Command centre — model health, strong markets, live results
Updated 2026-10-10 17:07 UTC
Strong calls only (≥ threshold at prediction time). Bars show hit rate. Rows with < 5 samples are dimmed.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 219/233 | 94% | |
| Over 1.5 | 153/195 | 78% | |
| Under 3.5 | 104/154 | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63/101 | 62% | |
| BTTS Yes | 42/73 | 58% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33/73 | 45% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15/35 | 43% | |
| BTTS No | 31/82 | 38% | |
| Under 1.5 | 1/16 | 6% | |
| Under 0.5 | 0/1 | 0% |
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 15/18 | 83% |
| Unknown | 3/4 | 75% |
| Serie A | 30/51 | 59% |
| Premier League | 28/55 | 51% |
| Primeira Liga | 24/48 | 50% |
| Ligue 1 | 21/46 | 46% |
| La Liga | 30/66 | 45% |
| Bundesliga | 19/42 | 45% |
| Europa League | 8/18 | 44% |
| Eredivisie | 18/46 | 39% |
| Serie B | 21/55 | 38% |
| Championship | 32/95 | 34% |
| Match | Predicted | Score | 1X2 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Virtus Entella 57%
pred 1-0
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Empoli vs Palermo
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Palermo 66%
pred 0-1
|
2-4 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Benevento vs Cesena FC
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Benevento 39%
pred 1-0
|
2-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Südtirol vs Ascoli
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Südtirol 48%
pred 1-0
|
0-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Preston North End vs Millwall
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Millwall 49%
pred 1-2
|
0-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Middlesbrough 51%
pred 2-1
|
1-0 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Sheffield United vs Lincoln City
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Lincoln City 37%
pred 0-0
|
3-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Derby County vs Wrexham AFC
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5
|
Wrexham AFC 41%
pred 0-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Watford vs Burnley
Over 0.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Watford 36%
pred 0-0
|
0-4 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Stoke City 66%
pred 1-2
|
1-2 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Blackburn Rovers 48%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Swansea City vs Norwich City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 BTTS Yes
|
Swansea City 66%
pred 2-1
|
2-1 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
Bristol City 55%
pred 0-1
|
1-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 BTTS No
|
West Bromwich Albion 42%
pred 1-0
|
0-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
SC Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
VfB Stuttgart 48%
pred 1-1
|
0-2 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5
|
TSG Hoffenheim 80%
pred 3-0
|
2-3 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Union Berlin vs Elversberg
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Elversberg 68%
pred 1-3
|
1-0 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 BTTS Yes
|
Bayer Leverkusen 39%
pred 2-2
|
3-4 | Correct | 2026-10-10 |
|
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5
|
Bayern Munich 77%
pred 0-3
|
2-2 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
|
Genoa vs Fiorentina
Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 3.5
|
Fiorentina 48%
pred 1-1
|
2-1 | Wrong | 2026-10-10 |
When the model said X% confidence, how often was it right? Positive delta = under-confident.
| Band | Record | Actual | Expected | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–45% | 19/40 | 48% | ~43% | +5.0pp |
| 45–50% | 16/36 | 44% | ~48% | -3.1pp |
| 50–55% | 12/29 | 41% | ~52% | -11.1pp |
| 55–60% | 14/30 | 47% | ~57% | -10.8pp |
| 60–65% | 12/23 | 52% | ~62% | -10.3pp |
| 65–70% | 13/21 | 62% | ~68% | -5.6pp |
| 70%+ | 21/44 | 48% | ~85% | -37.3pp |
Walk-forward on 1939 last-season matches.
| League | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 980/1939 | 50.5% |
| Champions League | 112/189 | 59% |
| Ligue 1 | 162/305 | 53% |
| Serie A | 195/380 | 51% |
| La Liga | 185/380 | 49% |
| Premier League | 183/380 | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 143/305 | 47% |